Imminent Earthquake in California?
Is it true of false, from a scientific angle, that a major earthquake of great magnitude will inevitably and soon devastate the west coast of the USA and that it will, beyond reasonable doubt, cause great loss of life ? If so, what provision is now in place to evacuate the areas most likely to be affected by that event ? Areas such as Los Angeles and other parts of California.
Answers:
There is no provision to evacuate areas likely to get hit by a quake, because mainstream American geologists are not working hard at predicting quakes.
In China, with its huge population, a large quake can kill tens or hundreds of thousands of people, and geologists there study the strange behavior of animals before quakes in their science of predicting quakes.
American geologists refuse to study animal behavior before quakes, except one "maverick" geologist named Jim Berkland, who successfully predicted the 1989 San Francisco quake. He has been studying animal behavior before quakes as a basis for predicting quakes for many, many years. Type his name into Google to get to his web site.
It is true that there will always be a major threat of an earthquake in California. Four large quakes struck last century at the least, and we should expect as many this century.
And, seeing how New Orleans is holding out now, I doubt there is any provision at all.
From everything we hear it seems inevitable that a major quake will strike the west coast at some point in the future but when and of what magnitude is impossible to predict.As as preparing for such an event I think that would be mere speculation as there is no way to predict exactly where it would strike and which transportation routes would be devastated and the ensuing panic would hamper any preparations no matter how well informed or educated the public may think they are.
Since Earthquakes cannot be predicted - yes it could happen anytime. The two tectonic plates butting up against one another - the Pacific riding underneath the American plate - (the subduction zone) so anywhere in the vicinity of the San Andreas fault is or could be at risk.
Because of the large numbers of people living in California even if it was possible to give some warning, the resultant panicit would cause and the time it would take to implement an evacuation would be far longer than the predicted event - thus causing chaos on all forms of transportation out of the state. This alone could lead to a greater loss of life that the earthquake itself.
TIG
Trust In God
Inevitably. The problem is, what constitutes "soon" in geological terms? Based on past records, the "Big One" is overdue, but that is in terms of the average return period. Significant deviation from the average is to be expected, so given that it's been roughly 100 years since the last big one, it's about time, but it could be another 25 years, even 50.
Also, there is no way currently of knowing where along the fault system it will occur - it doesn't have to be directly under San Fancisco or LA; indeed it probably won't be.
But unlike other random or chance events, the longer you go without one, the more likely it is to happen in any given year, and the bigger it is likely to be, as the stress is building up constantly.
For what it's worth, I'd think twice about living permanently in California.
Yes is is true, we have known this for years but cities and more homes are still being built in these areas despite our knowing this is a vunerable spot for earthquakes.
Also Yellow Stone park is a massive supper volcano waiting to blow its top and if it does the whole world will be plungerd into darkness for some months.It is due to erupt about every 600 000 years, the last time it errupted was 600 000 years ago and about the same time before that.
Also the american indians used to migrate around america at certain times of the year to avoide all the hurricans and tornadoes, then us europeans settled there and now wonder why we get so much hassle from mother nature.
to expound upon Paul's answer. Yes- it's imminent.
Geology has been able to track about the last 12 major movements of the San Andreas fault and they appear to happen at, on average, 135 year intervals. The last one was in 1857 (you do the math). So- we're due. but- Paul is right, it could still be 100 years away. or tomorrow.
The good news is that the 7+ earthquake will be on the San Andreas fault which doesn't run all that close to Los Angeles.
Fortunately- since 1971, all buildings have been built to the earthquake code which gives them a terrific ability to withstand violent shaking. It's been quite a life saver.
On the down side- the LA basin is riddled with faults that run right under highly populated areas. While these faults typically aren't capable of producing magnitude 8 and up quakes, there are a number of larger faults that can produce upper 6's and 7's. Northridge in 1994 was a 6.7. Whittier- low 6's, and the big Sylmar quake in 1971 was a 7.1. All of which caused damage and some deaths.
There will certainly be more coming
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Answers:
There is no provision to evacuate areas likely to get hit by a quake, because mainstream American geologists are not working hard at predicting quakes.
In China, with its huge population, a large quake can kill tens or hundreds of thousands of people, and geologists there study the strange behavior of animals before quakes in their science of predicting quakes.
American geologists refuse to study animal behavior before quakes, except one "maverick" geologist named Jim Berkland, who successfully predicted the 1989 San Francisco quake. He has been studying animal behavior before quakes as a basis for predicting quakes for many, many years. Type his name into Google to get to his web site.
It is true that there will always be a major threat of an earthquake in California. Four large quakes struck last century at the least, and we should expect as many this century.
And, seeing how New Orleans is holding out now, I doubt there is any provision at all.
From everything we hear it seems inevitable that a major quake will strike the west coast at some point in the future but when and of what magnitude is impossible to predict.As as preparing for such an event I think that would be mere speculation as there is no way to predict exactly where it would strike and which transportation routes would be devastated and the ensuing panic would hamper any preparations no matter how well informed or educated the public may think they are.
Since Earthquakes cannot be predicted - yes it could happen anytime. The two tectonic plates butting up against one another - the Pacific riding underneath the American plate - (the subduction zone) so anywhere in the vicinity of the San Andreas fault is or could be at risk.
Because of the large numbers of people living in California even if it was possible to give some warning, the resultant panicit would cause and the time it would take to implement an evacuation would be far longer than the predicted event - thus causing chaos on all forms of transportation out of the state. This alone could lead to a greater loss of life that the earthquake itself.
TIG
Trust In God
Inevitably. The problem is, what constitutes "soon" in geological terms? Based on past records, the "Big One" is overdue, but that is in terms of the average return period. Significant deviation from the average is to be expected, so given that it's been roughly 100 years since the last big one, it's about time, but it could be another 25 years, even 50.
Also, there is no way currently of knowing where along the fault system it will occur - it doesn't have to be directly under San Fancisco or LA; indeed it probably won't be.
But unlike other random or chance events, the longer you go without one, the more likely it is to happen in any given year, and the bigger it is likely to be, as the stress is building up constantly.
For what it's worth, I'd think twice about living permanently in California.
Yes is is true, we have known this for years but cities and more homes are still being built in these areas despite our knowing this is a vunerable spot for earthquakes.
Also Yellow Stone park is a massive supper volcano waiting to blow its top and if it does the whole world will be plungerd into darkness for some months.It is due to erupt about every 600 000 years, the last time it errupted was 600 000 years ago and about the same time before that.
Also the american indians used to migrate around america at certain times of the year to avoide all the hurricans and tornadoes, then us europeans settled there and now wonder why we get so much hassle from mother nature.
to expound upon Paul's answer. Yes- it's imminent.
Geology has been able to track about the last 12 major movements of the San Andreas fault and they appear to happen at, on average, 135 year intervals. The last one was in 1857 (you do the math). So- we're due. but- Paul is right, it could still be 100 years away. or tomorrow.
The good news is that the 7+ earthquake will be on the San Andreas fault which doesn't run all that close to Los Angeles.
Fortunately- since 1971, all buildings have been built to the earthquake code which gives them a terrific ability to withstand violent shaking. It's been quite a life saver.
On the down side- the LA basin is riddled with faults that run right under highly populated areas. While these faults typically aren't capable of producing magnitude 8 and up quakes, there are a number of larger faults that can produce upper 6's and 7's. Northridge in 1994 was a 6.7. Whittier- low 6's, and the big Sylmar quake in 1971 was a 7.1. All of which caused damage and some deaths.
There will certainly be more coming
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